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Sign up with Google Sign up with FacebookQ: Diaoyu Island controversy can it lead to more violence?
What say you boys and girls?
Do you mean the Senkaku Islands? No, no potential violence there.
They belong to Japan, so therefore should go by the Japanese name - Senkaku Islands. The only potential for violence is from Chinese aggression.
Depends on this new Chinese head-honcho... if he's really willing to go to war over them. I would doubt it, but it's going to be a pretty intense time.. something akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis... people just waiting for that first time a shot gets fired.
What I also envisage is a plane or helicopter (or 2) getting shot down... and then all the political bickering about that. (and the backdowns..."oh, sorry, that was an accident... however, they were over our island!" Which means, really, too cowardly to actually start or go through with a war, but too stupid to not play chicken! )
(I'm suggesting, shooting down a single aircraft won't escalate into war, but firing at a naval ship will..)
Traveler:
I think there would be retaliation if China fired first. Perhaps sinking the Chinese aircraft carrier would be enough to have a demoralising effect on the entire country.
nevermind:
It would give me some great ammunition for Wu Maos, I know that much.
In a previous thread ,,,, I liked ... the Canada/Denmark controversy over an island ......... go there and plant a flag with a bottle of Canadian Club and then the Danes come and drink the whiskey and replace with their flag and a bottle of Danish Vodka and Carlsberg...... this can be done with Baijui and sake ....until one or the other passes out or they actually meet at the flags and get drunk together and realize, life is GOOD.
china attacked vietnam when america was busy with the iran hostage crisis, if america gets bogged down in an embarrassing problem usually with a democratic president , china would make it an issue , china always moves when the world is centered on something else.
appear weak when your strong, appear strong when your weak. attack when not expected , withdraw for no apparent reason, the art of war.
I had a friend who described a fight between me and my boss. He told me: "that's just about who's got it bigger" if you know what I mean. I was expecting to get him on my side and defend me. Well, nope, it was the best way of naming some facts the way they were.
Of course he is of a much and higher esteem experience about life.
Well, I believe that's the same issue. Now, wondering who's got it bigger, the Chinese or the Japanese...who cares after all. It's only their tiny world they try to show off with something.
To be honest, they won't get any further with this issues. None of the both sides are really willing to go on war at all.
I had a friend who described a fight between me and my boss. He told me: "that's just about who's got it bigger" if you know what I mean. I was expecting to get him on my side and defend me. Well, nope, it was the best way of naming some facts the way they were.
Of course he is of a much and higher esteem experience about life.
Well, I believe that's the same issue. Now, wondering who's got it bigger, the Chinese or the Japanese...who cares after all. It's only their tiny world they try to show off with something.
To be honest, they won't get any further with this issues. None of the both sides are really willing to go on war at all.
Shining_brow:
Not quite the problem, Jeaniacob... the problem is their allies! Who will side with who??
If the US sides with Japan (as they appear to be doing), that would most likely mean the other countries as part of NATO, and ANZUS will side with them as well.
Then let's see how things turn (especially in regards to the economy...).
How would it end? China's face would be seriously smacked down... how do you recover from that much facing down?? Nukes?? (unlikely, but possible) Or, more likely, China would introvert, and that biggest economy and trading partner in the world just disappeared.... (and, then what happens with all the US debts/bonds owned by China??)
Traveler:
China's US bonds could be forfeited as war reparations, including the trillion dollars China owes from WWII.
Taiwan could take it's rightful place as the government of northern China. Hong Kong could take over Southern China. Xinjiang could be granted independence. The Dalai Lama could return to Tibet. The government leaders could be reeducated at labour camps. Everything could work out sweet.
All it would take is a concerted and combined effort to sink the rusted out aircraft carrier that seems to be the sole symbol of China's supposed military might. Then sit back and watch the revolution inside China.
Shining_brow:
Oh, Traveler dude...... "May you live in interesting times".. it's a curse, you know!
And, I think you've just described those interesting times.
Really not sure I want to be here when all that goes down....
Sure it can. take three armed belligerants, sprinkle in a few handfuls of nationalistic zealots running unsupervised, arm with modern military hardware, add a liberal dose of testosterone, top off with face-saving pride,,,,, yeah, I would say you have the ingredients necessary for a violent confrontation to occur.
Could it cause a violent confrontation itself? No. The question is to what extent the Chinese and Japanese governments are going to use it to stoke ultra-nationalism and attempt to destabilize the region. The way both countries see it is that the two are going to have it out with one another at some point in the coming decades. Neither country would be able to pull off a full scale war/occupation of the other at this point, but support of the US is crucial to the Japanese defense strategy. While the anglosphere is as powerful as it is, China's leader's only hope for provoking a war is getting Japan to strike first- in such a way that the US/Australia/UK would leave Japan hanging. Far more realistically however, is that the leaders simply want Diaoyu/Senkaku as something simmering on the backburner, which they can flare up whenever the next environmental/protest/domestic problem occurs. If you pay attention, you will see a lot of different scapegoats being prepared for the public to consume- the CCP is realistic enough to know that all they can do is buy themselves enough time to flee the country once things get really bad. I suppose the question for the rest of us is whether the public will blame the government or the government and foreign governments, for their abortion of an economic development plan. I for one would rather not be a victim of Boxer Rebellion v2.0.
From my little understanding on such matters, as I understand that the whole world's economic stability relies on China, mostly, and Japan and other Asian countries to some extent, I doubt there will be neither this year nor in the next few decades war between them at all. But what should I know of the endeavor of evil that leads the minds of their leaders? Let's hope they won't as i want to lay down soon or later in on of those countries. Let's hope that my future will not be threaten and I can live and get older in a pacific country.
Absolutely.
Contrary to China's "we own all this" attitude - for example, they claim they "own" a large part of the Pacific Ocean (South China Sea) - totally disregarding world agreed upon territorial rights - hte Senkaku Islands belong to Japan.
China likes to bring up these useless old documents that have no bearing on the current country - "New" China was founded in 1949 - they claim any treaties or agreements made before that don't apply to the "new" government, except for things in their favor.
For example, war reparations to the US for WW2? Old China! Before the CCP! Can't be counted! Senkaku? Map from 1500s! It's always been part of China!
Mostly retarded.
Anyway, yes this can escalate. I think China is feeling mightier than they are really, and the whole "we hate Japan" thing might be the reason.
Unfortunately for China, I think they'd find Japan to be a much tougher opponent than they realize - Japan still has a standing Navy - and then when Japan is backed by the US military, which would 100% happen due to treaties, they'd be 100% screwed.
The US has only used a small percentage of capability in the past few endeavors. Full US commitment would be devastating for anywhere.
nevermind:
Plus, then you'd have Taiwan involved, maybe South Korea due to mutual defence treaties. The threat of a China/North Korea attack on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could then lead to the other allies of those nations getting involved. Before you know it India is attacking from the South, Eastern China is a firepit and a civil war has started in the Western and southern regions of the country.
The CPC know any major war will end with their demise.
Amonk:
Once the US gets involved, that almost necessarily means NATO is in right away. Frankly, China will not have anything to combat that even in the next 100 years even if things go perfectly for the CCP. Maybe in another 50 years if their foreign policy starts to resonate authority instead of pettiness then they could find some situation in which Japan would be isolated from the rest of the world. Highly unlikely however, as every realistic war scenario between Japan and China would be Chinese aggression with any perceived 'provocation' being one only those inside the mainland would believe. As for Taiwan and South Korea, I think the US (who, let's be honest, would just take control of this situation once it fell into their hands) would prefer that those two nations focus on strengthening their own defense forces than anything else. Those two nations would be too easily overrun without overwhelming air and sea superiority.
There is another player in this situation that hasn't been mentioned (I think...). - North Korea.
It's highly unlikely that any violence in the area is really going to be minimalised to just the key players... and Nth Korea has been flexing its muscles as well.. could be interesting to see how much...
Amonk:
That's the other reason the US wants South Korea to keep from being in play, it opens up North Korea.
ambivalentmace:
japan has a great history of taking weapons technology and using it better and more efficiently than the americans and making upgrades that even americans dont know about. they will surprise the world if a confrontation occurs, not just china, japan has no pusillanimous at all.
Traveler:
China supposedly invented gunpowder, and every other country on earth used it against them to occupy China. Particularly the Japanese, who have demolished China in two wars so far.