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Sign up with Google Sign up with FacebookQ: China most unhappy at attitude of every other country in the world.
Shangri La talkfest in Singapore.....Biggest Chinese General: "Other countries must stop picking on China!" "We have the proof!"
Speech aimed at Japan and US, and delivered after both Abe and Hagel had left the building.
So, where do you stand on this ongoing issue? And can you put on your prognosticators? What's the buzz...tell me what's happening! Going to happen...
Where's the action going to be? East/South China Sea? Far Western China? Far Eastern Europe? Rio De Janeiro?
(Got Peter Allen in my head....."Woah oh oh....I go to Rio...")
10 years 17 weeks ago in Health & Safety - China
Its total bullshit, they live on their bubble and they will try to justify their action through some weird logic or some outdated history. All we can hope is that they aren't going to start the 3rd world war.
Seems like the surrounding countries will need to draw up a border, like a E/SE Asian style NATO: "if you attack one of us, we consider that an attack on all". The ancient Greeks said that Hubris (thought of like a principle or a god) calls up its own Nemesis (pictured as a woman-god). Methinks this is what this country is invoking right now, but not sure how it will play out. A definite rise in anti-Chinese sentiment, maybe it's in a similar position to where the US was just before the 9/11 attack.
There are many signs that the nations in dispute with China are fed up. Vietnam holding hands with Phil, Japan selling sea vessels to Vietnam, and the US signing defense treaties with as many of them who are willing. Continued rhetoric in Beijing will only hasten this.
I suspect China is just trying to get away with as much as they possibly can before someone puts their foot down, Sort of how Hitler went about Europe before war started... a little bit here, a little bit there.. no-one seems to mind.
Most countries aren't scared of losing a war against China - they're just worried that a) their people will die, and b) the gi-normous economy and trading partner will no longer be there to milk.
Sidicas:
I agree with you 100%..
Also, the "warning signs" that historians can look back and say are obvious indicators of the coming world war II...
You can see similar warning signs in China.. China is making movies about having war with Japan like crazy. I don't mean like a trilogy, or a mini-series, or a full season.. I'm talking about one after another after another, constantly year after year after year after year... Then they go and broadcast them on TV across China, all day, every day.
Methinks someone is playing her favorite game whilst sitting across the shore.
Interesting how China is always the hurt one, never the aggressor. I'd always seen it in the past as the "chip on the shoulder" that is a remnant of the Opium Wars, etc. You know the one, all the imperialist aggressors picking on poor China.
Recently started to read an interesting ebook looking at the history of Chinese relations with SouthEast Asia. http://shanyoma.org/yoma/a_short_history_of_china_and_southeast_asia.pdf
Currently on the chapters covering the start of the Ming Dynasty and came across this paragraph, which to me, descrribes Chinese views on the outside world today. So the current responses aren't anything new. To quote........
"It should be noted that because China stood at the centre of the world, and because the emperor enjoyed the mandate of Heaven, any friction that arose in foreign relations was necessarily due to the failure of vassal kingdoms to act in accordance with Chinese expectations. In such cases punishment might be necessary—always because China had been provoked, and always to restore the peace that China desired—on China’s terms. Given the Chinese conceptions of hierarchy and harmony, it was always possible to justify aggressive policies in high moral terms when it was in China’s interest to do so. "
Scandinavian:
I am sure there is at least one Mao quote that stands in sharp contrast to this. It is relevant though, that China has always assumed this role, and never tried to understand the rest of the world..... just like other failed empires.
This scares me actually. When you look at just the economic factors in China, then China will succeed, become the worlds largest economy and a superpower.
By always being "right" always being "provoked" and never being wrong in any international context, I am very pessimistic for a world where China is the dominant economic and military power. It is so easy to see China wanting the world to be a part of "Greater China" and punishing and pressuring lesser states to do whatever China wants them to do.
Even if the economics add up (if you trust official sources with the numbers that is!) then there are a lot of societal challenges which can easily break China in the next 15-25 years. I'm not talking about the democracy boogey-man, but more the fact that a high-income society needs some level of social rights and justice to function, or else all the creative types whom you want to keep will just try to escape. And if such concessions are not made and the economy slows down or even shrinks then all hell will surely break loose.
While I can't stand the way Chinese leaders act up in international contexts I don't thinks it is the most important factor right now, although it might help with isolating China. I guess this is the oldest trick in the book, focus national attention abroad so the people will shut up about domestic issues, we'll see how long that will last.
KimOnach:
"When you look at just the economic factors in China, then China will succeed, become the worlds largest economy and a superpower."
Not even close.
DrMonkey:
Look at China's age pyramid, where the investment are mostly made since 2008 (real estate & industries already in production over-capacity) and where the cheap labor force sources are now (not in China anymore). Things have changed since the late 90's ;)
I hope im wrong for the sake of all our jobs and our relatively comfortable lives here, but my hunch is that there are hawkish elements of the china govt that are just itching to assert themselves and may do so before they truly have the leverage and power to get away with it.
An openly aggressive China could get severe trade sanctions that prompt order-making firms to contract with factories elsewhere. China labor costs are up, what keeps the orders coming in are relative stability (which would go away if they start getting involved in shooting wars), infrastructure, and inertia (firms have longstanding relationships with China factories and the factory you know is less risky than the one you don't)
Maybe i'm way off...but i just don't think China would be very good at war. This isn't really a culture of bravery or personal excellence/valor. Equipment/weapons being equal, I would imagine each soldier/sailor/airman would be qualitatively less effective than their opponent.
expatlife26:
My fear is that given the lack of quality forces here, that a small conflict could quickly get out of hand.
China politically needs to 'win' a shooting war. Lets say them and vietnam skirmish over that oil rig. My hunch is that their opponent can probably beat them on a local basis, China doesn't really have any great units that can dominate a battlefield, for them to win a war it needs to be by overwhelming numbers.
Overwhelming numbers leads to lots of casualties though. My hunch is an oil rig is a sitting duck target that pretty much can't be saved if somebody wants to take it out. Once they lose 20 ships worth of crews (We're in for 5,000 deaths already they need to MEAN something!) and an expensive oil rig what now? They're gonna have riots in the streets because nationalism runs so high!
Then what? They start bombing vietnam? Land invasion? In '79 they DID invade vietnam (to support genocidaire Pol Pot in Cambodia) and found their invasion stalled out by local militia units, not even coming into contact with SRV regular units. They just said "Hey we won we won!!!!" and left. I don't think people are so easily fooled now.
They can't win a small conflict because of their lack of ability, they could win a big one if they leverage their size.
It amazes me how a country can seem to have a superiority and an inferiority complex at the same time.
Is it possible for a country to have a personality disorder?
But I did like it when they called the USA "mincing rascals".....quality put-down.
As a tactic, it's working. Even though I live far away from Beijing, I still get a feeling of becoming ever so slightly boxed in.
Of course, luckily for me, I can jump on a plane out of here tomorrow if I want.