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Posts: 164

Governor

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Q: Current and future value of the yuan

I am curious if you think the yuan is undervalued what do you think a more accurate exchange rate, say against the USD would be?  Also where do you see the value of the Yuan going in the future?  Some say it could potentially become the world reserve currency others speculate China itself will hit a financial cliff. 

 

 

Random side question but do you guys buy breakfast cereal here?  If so don't you feel the price is such a rip!

11 years 37 weeks ago in  Money & Banking - China

 
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Posts: 3025

Emperor

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The current rate of exchange varies according of the way you have the money to be changed.  If you have an electronic transfer at  the bank, you will get the best rate (about 6.21 today).  If you have $ 100 US dollar bills, you will get the second best.  And if you have a bunch of $ 20, $10, $ 5 and $ 1 then you will get one maybe 0.02 lower than the second one.  Of course, for small amounts is not significant, but for large amounts it does count.

 

Many do feel abroad that the yuan is still undervalued.  What they do not seem to agree is by how much.  The bast numbers I have seen place the value from 30 to 40 % lower within the next 5 years.  I do not believe China will go that far, rememberit does depends on exports to survive.

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11 years 37 weeks ago
 
Posts: 2763

Emperor

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I think (my opinion) it's undervalued but I can only guess at a more accurate value. Maybe 5:1 RMB to USD?

I think the RMB will appreciate gradually against the dollar because that's the CCP policy and they don't float the RMB, they control it.

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11 years 37 weeks ago
 
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the dominant world currency may be their goal, no exports of gold since 2009, buying alot of gold, but until people can trust their markets here , i dont think people will rush to the rmb, if they had a singapore system here , maybe they could control more , but they have to get the saudis to change the rule of buying oil only in dollars first, then the dollar is toast. the problem then would be what currency can you trust. singapore, switzerland, canada, maybe australia, tough choices.

mattsm84:

Yea, that's the thing, you can't trust any of those currencies. And you couldn't trust a basket of currencies either, because the volatility is too high. Also, the Saudi's are never, ever going move away from the dollar. If they do, the US may decide that it isn't worth it to keep all those military bases in that country. If they pull out, how long do you think that the Saudi's would last by themselves? Smart money's on less than a year. 

11 years 37 weeks ago
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mattsm84:

Also, gold is just another commodity. They might as well be hoarding space bucks.

11 years 37 weeks ago
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juanisaac:

Gold is not really a commodity but money.  For thousands of years people have been using gold and silver coins to buy things.  In Chinese the word bank literally translates into "silver trader."  The Chinese were the ones who invented paper currency during the Song Dynasty and the locals called it "fly away money."  The world central banks can just print up as many green or red backs as needed to spend.  Gold and silver must be dug up and it can't be created like paper money can.

11 years 37 weeks ago
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mattsm84:

No, gold is a commodity, and its value, which often fluctuates, is listed on the commodities market. In getting back on a gold standard, we'd simply be tying the value of money to a set commodity. Theoretically, you could do the same with pork bellies or expensive bottles of wine.

 

The world's major reserve currencies, the USD, the Euro, and the Yen, are all fiat money, and every other currency in the world is tied to their values. 

 

That people have used minerals as a currency, or as a reserve for currency, for thousands of years is irrelevant as it cannot be used as currency today. For real, go get some gold, take it to a store, and try to buy something with it. People will look at you like you're insane. Because for practical purposes, gold is not money and most stores do not use the barter system. The same is true of international trade, which also occurs in fiat currency. So no, gold is not a currency.

11 years 36 weeks ago
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11 years 37 weeks ago
 
Posts: 1420

Shifu

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There is a lot we don't know about China's economy, and the value of the Yuan is only one of those things. We also don't know the real value of its economy in terms of GDP or its annual growth rate. We know what they say it is, the question is whether or not we take them at their word. Having spent some time in the smaller cities in China, I don't know that I do. China is essentially divided into thousands of political fiefdoms where the mayor and the heads of whatever industry or industries are important to that particular area have a lot of autonomy, even when enforcing established law or reporting production quotas. Fareed Zakaria, for instance, has argued that because power is essentially shared between a central authority and regional authorities that the Chinese system is in a way like the federal systems used by governments in North America, except that that model can be applied to industry as well. So when the government in Beijing hands down production quotas and its expectations for expenses for its state owned enterprises, it, and by extension the rest of the world, trusts that they are being met. I think that its incredibly likely that these people, who are some of the most corrupt people in the country, may be misrepresenting the figures that they turn it, especially when they have an incentive to do so. Its impossible to even know how often this happens because China is incapable of conducting a comprehensive audit of its own books. And that's why China would be a bad candidate for the reserve currency simply because it would mean that China would have to open up its books entirely, and that's something that they can't do. Really, for the next couple decades, the dollar is remains the best choice for the world's reserve currency.

 

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11 years 37 weeks ago
 
Posts: 1989

Peasant

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I suspect that it's still undervalued, but who really knows.

 

I really hope that China continues to let the RMB gradually appreciate against the USD (That's about the only positive thing I have going for me here: my earnings will be worth more in the future. *fingers crossed*).

 

However, I worry that  in wake of its current economic troubles, China may be tempted to fall back on a cheap yuan again, even though it probably goes against its long-term interests.

 

(not an economist)

 

 

 

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11 years 37 weeks ago
 
Posts: 14

Governor

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We don't know about china economy and china liabilities and municipality liabilities and also china gov control fluctuation currency yuan, so we can only guess and i think that yuan not go up appreciate with euro.

mattsm84:

Who can really say what will happen with the Euro. Eventually, Italy or France are going to require a bail out, and when that happens either the Germans will agree to give them one, which will send a message to smaller EU nations that they are in fact not equals within the EU as its austerity for them, and economic stimulus for nations with larger economies, at which point some of them may want out, or they won't, and the nations with larger economies are going to regain some measure of soveignity over their currency.  

11 years 37 weeks ago
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